Gaza - Israel's Headache

The Gaza strip is some twenty eight miles long and three miles wide, yet this small area of land has cost thousands of lives and remains one of the most contentious areas on Earth. Home to over 1.5 million Palestinians, the current situation there has been described as one of the worst ongoing humanitarian crises the world has seen, and yet as abhorrent the situation is for the Palestinian population, I would still describe it as equally damaging for those referred to as the oppressors. How can this be so? Undoubtedly there are rockets fired from the Gaza strip. The captured soldier Gilad Shalit remains tightly wrapped in the arms of Hamas who hold at least tentative control over the area. In response, the Israeli military, backed by overwhelming domestic support, launched its own rockets which were more numerous and much more deadly. Operation Cast Lead killed over fourteen hundred Palestinians, the majority of whom were civilians. However, the fury has already been unleashed on the Palestinians. The fury against the Israelis is yet to come.

The historical problem has always been rooted in territorial disputes and anti-Semitism alongside reciprocal hatred towards the Arabs. The attempts to resolve these issues has always included the use of military, paramilitary or resistance operations. Following Operation Cast Lead such resistance has dwindled. Now the only credible and utilised threat is that of rocket attacks aimed at towns within range. There is of course the constant threat of isolated suicide bombings but with the construction of the security "barrier" (which of course remains another point for debate) has reduced this threat and in recent years there have been no such attacks. Nevertheless, Israeli aggression remains, and most days see military action against supposed military targets. The fall out from such aggression lies not today, but tomorrow.

The demographics of the Gaza strip would be astonishingly worrying for any government wishing to shore up an economy of any significance, let alone for a government faced with the additional challenges Gaza presents. Over 40% of Palestinians living in Gaza are under the age of 16 and the unemployment rate for those of working age is at approximately 45% - the highest of any area on Earth. This means that there already stands a significant number of disgruntled fighting age males, frustrated both with the policy of the Israelis and of a domestic leadership who seem incapable of dealing with internal problems affecting them. This inevitably leads to splinter groups who again the Hamas leadership seems unwilling or unable to deal with. It is these groups who take violent action against Israel and most of the rocket attacks appear to originate from splinter groups such as Ansar As-Sunna or Islamic Jihad.

The inability of Hamas to deal with this internal split seems to be a political own goal of catastrophic proportions. As long as they keep firing rockets Israel will continue its own aggression as well as the genocidal blockade of Gaza. Moreover, such action will be justified in the eyes of Israeli citizens, the majority of whom seem more than happy to see Palestinians suffer in the name of Homeland protection.

This of course raises the question of why Israel would choose an outdated form of warfare in the siege of Gaza. Effectively this siege is tantamount to sanctions at a level which would never be granted by the UN. Recently Israel banned the import of cooking gas into the area, which seems to be nothing more than a blatant act of cruelty. Gaza is clinging onto a struggling joyless existence and arguably suffers more terror than any region of its controversial neighbour, including Sderot which remains one of the most attacked places in the world. Indeed, Hamas was elected in what seemed like quasi-democratic elections, and it is an undeniable fact that Israel would benefit from a regime change. Sanctions have this overall aim. In this case, sanctions would not work fast enough as they are designed to be damaging but rarely critically destructive. The blockade however achieves the latter.

The blockade to this unprecedented level has been in force since 2007. In that time, Hamas have remained in power despite a comparatively minor conflict with Fatah. Nevertheless, the Gazan people cannot remain under such pressure, and it is this pressure which is inevitably destined to be transferred onto what appears to be a weak government as the suffering population begs for solutions. The problem for the future arises when those 40% of youngsters reach fighting age. Half of this demographic are of course female, and although there has been a number of incidents of female suicide bombings, the most worrying portion is that of the 20% of males. In five years time, one third of these males will reach fighting age, will be politically aware, will have grown up in the "Culture of Death" (as so aptly described by Ami Pedahzur) and will number an astonishing one hundred thousand - the size of the British Army. They will have access to weapons, they will be radicalised and will have lived during a time most likely to provoke hatred towards their neighbours. Half will be unemployed and will most likely be unmarried. They will also be guided by a government incapable and unwilling to calm their anger. I would therefore propose that there will be an intensification of pressure on the Hamas leadership to deal with the internal problems blighting the Gaza Strip, most of which stems from the Israeli blockade. In the meantime, Israel will also be unable to lift the siege for fear of opening the floodgates for attacks. Moreover, international pressure to lift the blockade seemingly falls on deaf ears, and internal support for aggressive action against Palestinians is widespread among Israeli voters.

Hamas have been engaged in resistance operations intermittently against Israel since its split from Fatah. They do not recognise Israel as a legitimate state and are considered as a terrorist organisation by most developed nations. Backed into a corner already, the pressure on the leadership is destined to grow. One must therefore question what the breaking point is. Will this be regime change through an Israeli backed internal uprising or will the breaking point have wider consequences? I suspect that rather than relinquish leadership, Hamas would opt for the latter. In knowing that the one common goal of those likely to attempt to overthrow them; that of the destruction of Israel and liberation of the Palestinian people, it would be much easier to opt for launching a third intifada.

A crocodile can bite down with ferocious force and tear the limbs from its prey with little effort. However, to hold its mouth closed requires negligible force, and in doing so its ability to bite vanishes. If you hold its mouth closed for years and allow it bare essentials for survival, the crocodile will still grow large and so will its teeth. The problem is, you must eventually let go at some point, and the angered and hungry reptile will inevitably bite. This bite however will be of an unprecedented nature. In five years time, Gaza will bite, and this inescapable fact will give the government of Israel a migraine of epic proportions.

*Opinion Blog - this means that there are no references other than those used for statistical purposes.